Odds Of Winning Poker At A Casino

Posted By admin On 13/04/22
Odds Of Winning Poker At A Casino 3,8/5 5177 reviews

Blackjack and video poker are two casino games that share a few similarities. They’re among the most popular casino games. They both involve lots of strategy, and they offer really low house edges under the right circumstances.

I’ve worked in the casino industry for several years, so I’ll try to give you a different perspective. A lot of people will say Blackjack, and in a single hand scenario with basic strategy this is true. Chances are that you want to win immediately in gambling — not at some point in the distant future. Casino games with favorable short-term odds like baccarat, blackjack, and Pai Gow poker can help you do this. Choosing games with good short-term prospects helps you collect small payouts and sustain your bankroll. For example, though the big six jackpot pays out at 40:1, your odds of winning this bet 2.5%! Same goes for Keno, where players must try to match 10 of 22 numbers that are drawn from a total of 80 to win a jackpot. Though matching numbers can earn the player winning amounts, the odds of winning big are statistically low. The fewer casinos in the area, the worse the odds. Competition drives down prices at casinos just as it does in most other businesses. The farther an Indian casino, a riverboat casino or a racetrack slots and video poker parlor are from other casinos, the worse the odds gamblers likely face there. Cruise ship casinos tend to offer poor odds, too.

Blackjack and video poker have each been among the most played casino games for decades. Fans of these games love using in-depth strategy to improve their odds of winning.

Assuming you use perfect strategy on the right blackjack or video poker variation, you’ll be facing less than a 0.5% house edge. These odds are quite good considering that the average casino game features over a 2% house advantage.

The merits behind both video poker and blackjack are easy to see. But which of these is the better skill-based game? I’ll answer this question by discussing the basics of each game along with their pros and cons.

Basics of Blackjack

Real money blackjack gives you more options than most card games. After receiving your initial two cards, you can either hit or stand.

Best Odds At Casino

You also have the ability to double down (rules permitting), split a pair (e.g. two 9s), or surrender (rare rule). Your goal is to beat the dealer’s hand without going over a score of 21.

Assuming your first two cards equal 21 (a.k.a. “natural”), you receive either a 3:2 or 6:5 payout on your original bet. The amount depends upon the table rules.

The only way you won’t receive an enhanced payout is if the dealer also has a natural. Your bet will be a push in this instance.

Learning Blackjack Strategy

Blackjack seems fairly complicated at first glance. The strategy can also be difficult to learn when considering the multiple options facing you at each stage.

Luckily, many blackjack strategy resources are available. You can consult articles, books, strategy charts, and trainers.

Unless you’re counting cards, I don’t suggest spending much time with articles or books. These resources are inefficient for studying basic strategy.

A strategy chart is the simplest and most effective tool for learning the basics. You can simply Google “blackjack strategy chart” and quickly find one.

These charts lay out exactly which moves you should make in each situation. If you have 14 and the dealer’s upcard is 8, for example, then the chart will suggest that you hit.

A trainer is a program that offers suggestions while you play blackjack. Much like charts, you can easily find free programs just by Googling “blackjack trainer.”

The trainer will point out when you make strategic mistakes while playing. If you don’t split aces, for instance, the program will alert you to this gaffe.

Trainers aren’t totally necessary if you’re just playing online blackjack. However, they’re great for naturally learning blackjack strategy before heading to a land-based casino.

Pros of Blackjack

Blackjack isn’t the most popular casino card game without reason. It offers several notable benefits, including the following.

Strategy Is Easy to Learn

Again, blackjack strategy appears complex in the beginning. Each decision presents you with multiple choices.

Do you hit or stand with 12 versus the dealer’s up card of seven? Should you double down on 10 when the dealer shows nine?

Fortunately, you won’t experience much difficulty learning strategy with the right tools. Charts and trainers are both easy ways to master this game.

Strategy charts are especially helpful when you’re playing online blackjack and have time to learn. Trainers are great for when you’ll be playing land-based blackjack and can’t refer to a chart for every decision.

Low Volatility

Blackjack doesn’t quite give you a 50% chance of winning hands. You actually only have around a 42% chance to win each round.

However, splitting, double downs, and natural payouts raise your odds tremendously. The dealer, on the other hand, can’t split, double down, or earn natural payouts.

With the right strategy and game, you’ll only be facing around a 0.5% house edge. Taking everything into account, you won’t face much volatility with this game.

Odds Of Winning In Blackjack

Profitable Advantage Play Method

You may feel like a blackjack master after thoroughly learning basic strategy. But you can take things even further by studying card counting, too.

Contrary to popular belief, card counting doesn’t require an MIT degree to learn. You can quickly pick up how to count cards within minutes.

The key obstacle is being able to count well enough to keep up with the dealer amid casino distractions. You also need a large bankroll (e.g. $10,000 or more) to survive the variance.

Card counting is easy in theory but far more difficult in person. Nevertheless, it’s worthwhile if you love blackjack and want to gain an edge.

Cons of Blackjack

While blackjack may be one of the greatest casino games ever, it definitely has some flaws. Here are the serious downsides to consider with this game.

House Edge Varies Widely Between Games

I’ve mentioned multiple times that the blackjack house edgecan be around 0.5%. However, you shouldn’t take for granted that the house advantage will be this low.

First off, the rules change from table to table. One game may feature a 0.5% house advantage, while the next can offer a 2% house edge.

You need to learn the different rules that can alter the odds before playing. Natural payouts have the biggest impact. A 3:2 payoff lowers the house advantage by 1.4% compared to a 6:5 payout.

Your skills also weigh into the matter. If you’re a bad player, then you may be facing a 3% house advantage or higher.

High Bets in Land-Based Casinos

Online casinos are typically the best places to play blackjack. They feature the lowest house edge, on average, and also accept small minimum bets ($1 in most cases).

Brick and mortar casinos are a different story. They must pay dealers to run games and cover higher utility bills.

Therefore, land-based casinos can’t afford to accept $1 wagers. They normally require a $10 minimum bet. If you find anything lower than this, you’re probably sitting at a table with bad rules.

Few Chances to Win Big

Blackjack games do offer progressive jackpots and side bets. However, the average game doesn’t feature these extra frills.

You’re not going to bet $5 on a hand and walk away a millionaire. After all, blackjack isn’t like slot machines or poker tournaments.

The main way to win big with blackjack is to bet big. Odds are, though, you don’t have $10,000 to bet per hand.

Basics of Video Poker

Video poker comes in a large number of variations. But at its core, this game is simply just Draw Poker. You receive a five-card hand to start each round. You must decide which cards you want to keep and discard.

For every card you discard, you must draw a card to replace it. Here’s an example:

  • You’re dealt: Ac-10h-As-4h-7c
  • You keep Ac-As.
  • You must draw three cards to replace 10h-4h-7c.

Your hand will be complete after the draw round. You’ll receive a payout if your hand qualifies for one.

Qualifying payouts differ based on which variation you’re playing. Jacks or Better pays for as little as a pair of jacks, for example, while Deuces Wild requires you to hold a three of a kind.

Your payouts will also be affected by how much you’re betting per round. Standard variations let you wager between one and five coins per hand. You should wager five coins in order to achieve top return to player (RTP) for any game you’re playing.

Learning Video Poker Strategy

Video poker strategy centers on knowing which cards to keep in each situation. You also have to account for which variation you’re playing, too. For instance, Jacks or Better strategy differs from Deuces Wild video poker strategy.

If you’re looking for a place to begin with strategy, then Jacks or Better (JoB) is a good choice. JoB forms the basis for all other variations.

A great deal of strategy charts exist for JoB across the internet due to its popularity. That said, you should have little trouble getting started with this game.

Unfortunately, you won’t be able to find charts for every variation. In these cases, you’ll have to use video poker trainers. Free trainers cover some of the more popular games. However, you’ll have to buy a training program (typically around $50) for other variants.

Video poker trainers are just like those available for blackjack. You play the game and receive suggestions on right or wrong decisions from the trainer.

Pros of Video Poker

Video poker offers a unique combination of large prizes and high payback. You can read about these advantages and more below.

Features Big Payouts

One big benefit that video poker has over blackjack is its top payout. This game pays 4,000 coins for a royal flush on a five-coin bet.

Assuming each coin is worth $0.25, you’ll be risking $1.25 per hand. You’d turn this small amount into $1,000 with a royal flush.

You can also look forward to other solid prizes with a five-coin wager. A straight flush (250 coins), four of a kind (125), and full house (45) also deliver large payouts.

Some Games Offer Over 100% RTP

Video poker is much like blackjack in that it gives you an opportunity to gain an edge. Certain variations offer over 100% RTP to skilled players.

Deuces Wild, for instance, pays back 100.76%. Double Bonus (100.17% RTP) and Double Double Bonus (100.07%) also pay well.

Even if you don’t find one of these games, you can still look forward to high payback with 9/6 Jacks or Better (99.54% RTP).

Simple Rules

Video poker isn’t a difficult game to play. In fact, you can quickly dive into video poker without having ever played.

All you need to do is select your discards and draw. As long as you’re not overly concerned with strategy, then you’ll find this game very easy.

Cons of Video Poker

While video poker may offer you a great chance to win, it also requires you to work hard. You should really consider the following downsides before committing to this work.

Strategy Is Difficult to Learn

Unless you find a chart for your chosen variation, you’re going to have a tough time with video poker strategy. Training yourself to make correct plays takes lots of time and effort.

You may find this undertaking to be worth the effort if you love video poker. But if you’re just approaching video poker from a casual perspective, then you may want to consider the slightly easier blackjack.

Strategy for Each Variation Can Be Hard to Find

As if video poker strategy isn’t already difficult enough, it’s not always readily available for each variation. This is especially the case for full-pay versions of Deuces Wild and Bonus Poker.

9/6 Jacks or Better and 8/5 Bonus Poker are the only variants that are featured in charts and trainers galore. You’ll have to spend extra time searching for strategy on most games outside of this scope.

At worst, you’ll need to put $50 or so into buying a trainer. You really want to be serious about the game before dumping money into learning strategy.

High Paying Variations Are Rare

Want to play full-pay Deuces Wild and make solid profits? If so, then you’d better head to Las Vegas, because you won’t find it elsewhere.

The highest-paying variations are tough to find. Downtown Vegas casinos are the only place to spot variants that offer positive-expected value (+EV).

You can find plenty of online video poker games that deliver over 99.5% RTP. You won’t have as much luck, though, in land-based casino destinations other than Vegas.

Conclusion

Which Game Is Better – Blackjack or Video Poker?

You can see that both blackjack and video poker have their high and low points. So, which game reigns supreme when accounting for the pros and cons?

Blackjack. It offers more accessible strategy, easier strategy, and low volatility. You can win frequently in blackjack without racking your brain to do so.

Of course, I’m just offering my personal opinion after looking closely at the matter. You may have a different take based on your personal preferences.

Video poker has its good points, too. You can look forward to large payouts, +EV games, and simplistic play.

However, my biggest issue with video poker is the strategy. You’ll have a tough time finding and learning the strategy for most games.

Both video poker and blackjack have unique benefits. But I feel that blackjack has stronger advantages that appeal to myself and the average player.

The chance of getting winning hands

By Henry Tamburin

Odds Of Winning Poker At A Casino

One of the nice features of the Video Poker for Winners software program is that it will compute the probability of every winning hand for any video poker game. For example, the Table 1 shows the probability (or occurrence) for 9/6Jacks or Better.

If you glance at the table, you’ll see some interesting facts about 9/6 Jacks or Better.

  • You’ll hit a royal, on average, once in every 40,390 hands.
  • You are more likely to hit a full house than either a flush or straight.
  • Your chance of hitting a straight is nearly the same as a flush.
  • The reason you rarely hit a straight flush is because the odds are pretty steep. (Once in every 9,148 hands).
  • Getting a high pair (Jacks-Aces) is a fairly frequently event. It will occur roughly once in every five hands.

Suppose you are planning to play four hours of 9/6 Jacks or Better. How many four-of-a-kinds would you expect? Care to guess? Actually, you don’t have to guess. If you assume a leisurely pace of 600 hands per hour and use the occurrence data in the above table, you would arrive at six expected four-of-a-kinds on average. (If you end up losing money after your four hour session, one reason could be that you had less than six four-of-a-kinds.) I’ve calculated in Table 2 how many of each winning hand on average you can expect in every four-hour session, assuming 600 hands per hour, and I rounded up or down).

Usually, a video poker player will end up wining money in a four-hour session when he or she gets either a royal flush, straight flush, or more than six four-of-a-kinds. Losing sessions usually occur when you get more than 1,311“no win” hands. Here are some more interesting facts to ponder based on the above data:

1.You lose more hands than you win when you play video poker. (In the above ex-ample of a typical four-hour session, you can expect to lose 1311 times for every 1091 times you win something).

Odds Of Winning At Casino

2.Because you can expect more losing sessions than winning sessions when you play video poker, you can expect your bankroll to head south.

3.You will recoup your losses over time when you hit a royal flush.

4.Since a royal flush only occurs once in every 40,000 or so hands on average, you need patience and enough bankroll to sustain your play between one royal flush and the next one.

5.Playing 600 hands per hour, you can expect to get a royal flush once in every 60hours of play. That’s an average. Sometimes you’ll hit more than one royal in 60 hours of play and other times you will experience a “royal flush drought.” (That’s when it takes longer than 60 hours to hit a royal flush, which is why having enough bankroll is so important.)

Winning Money At The Casino

Here’s another bit of information to ponder. It’s based on what video poker players frequently tell me; namely, that “they never seem to win playing a specific video poker game at Casino X but they win more times playing the same game at Casino Y. Based on this “recollection,” they incorrectly conclude that Casino Y must offer better odds at video poker than Casino X.” The facts are this: Casinos do not alter the odds in the above table for getting each winning poker hand (if they did and got caught, they could lose their gaming license).The only thing they can and often do is change the payoff odds for some of the winning hands (which is why you should always check the pay schedule on a video poker machine to be sure the game is paying the maximum amount for each winning hand, known as a full pay game). As I often tell students in my video poker classes, it doesn’t matter where you play a specific video poker game because the odds of get-ting any winning hand are the same regardless if the casino happens to be in Las Vegas, Atlantic City, the Midwest or even Timbuktu.

Bottom line: Unlike slot machines, casinos do not change the odds of getting winning hands in video poker machines (that randomly select the cards for every hand).

HOW WOULD YOU PLAY IT?

Chances Of Winning Poker At Casino

You are playing Jacks or Better and are dealt the following hand. How would you play it?

Odds Of Winning Three Card Poker At A Casino

Normally you would keep a suited J-10 over an unsuited J-K but this hand also contains a 3 of hearts, which is a flush penalty card. This means if you discard the 3♥ (along with the 5 and King), your chances of getting a flush by holding the J-10 suited have been slightly reduced (because you’ve removed from play one of the flush cards when you discarded the 3). Therefore, the presence of the flush penalty card makes the Expected Value slightly greater for holding the unsuited J-K over the suited J-10. Remember: Hold suited J-10 over unsuited J-K except if there is a flush penalty card, in which case, hold the unsuited J-K.